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class="det_title_info"><h1>【穆沙拉夫?yàn)楹慰宀涣�？】穆沙拉�?/h1></div> <p>發(fā)布時(shí)間:<span>2020-04-07</span> 來源: <span><a href="http://www.newchangjing.com/rijidaquan/" class="lanmu">日記大全</a></span> 點(diǎn)擊：<span id="hits"></span> <span><a ><img style="vertical-align: middle; height:16px;" src="/images/wap.jpg" /></a></span></p> </div> <div id="w54xp4xzjmf" class="det_content" id="zoom"> <p><script type="text/javascript">ok3w_ads("s004");</script></p> <div id="w54xp4xzjmf" class=ggad><script type="text/javascript">ok3w_ads("s005");</script></div> <p> 　　　　貝?布托與穆沙拉夫聯(lián)手才是美國(guó)最希望看到的結(jié)局｡　　　　西方普遍把巴基斯坦11月3日上演的政治危機(jī)稱為穆沙拉夫的“第二次政變”｡而在上海國(guó)際問題研究所學(xué)者王偉華看來,穆沙拉夫在實(shí)施緊急狀態(tài)后,對(duì)內(nèi)加強(qiáng)局勢(shì)控制,對(duì)外尋求國(guó)際理解,最大限度地減小了政治危機(jī)帶來的負(fù)面影響｡ <br/>　　11月11日下午,穆沙拉夫舉行臨時(shí)記者會(huì),宣布將于明年1月9日前舉行議會(huì)選舉｡這是他自11月3日宣布實(shí)施緊急狀態(tài)之后,首次面對(duì)國(guó)際媒體｡他同時(shí)強(qiáng)調(diào),在最高法院最終確認(rèn)其總統(tǒng)選舉合法后,他將成為民選總統(tǒng)(即不再兼任陸軍參謀長(zhǎng))｡這預(yù)示著所謂的穆沙拉夫“第二次政變”,將以一種多方妥協(xié)的結(jié)果告一段落｡ <br/>　　 <br/>　　穆沙拉夫以攻代守 <br/>　　 <br/>　　11月3日,穆沙拉夫面對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)反對(duì)派勢(shì)力的進(jìn)攻,突然宣布巴基斯坦全國(guó)實(shí)行緊急狀態(tài),并頒布一項(xiàng)臨時(shí)憲法令｡此后,最高法院大法官伊夫蒂哈爾?喬杜里被解職,律師､穆斯林聯(lián)盟(謝里夫派)､宗教政黨聯(lián)盟中的伊斯蘭教神學(xué)會(huì)(與塔利班關(guān)系密切)､反政府記者等上千人被“預(yù)防性軟禁”｡ <br/>　　在此期間,巴基斯坦重要的標(biāo)志性建筑物附近都有防暴部隊(duì)把守｡在通往總統(tǒng)府､總理府､三軍情報(bào)局總部､國(guó)會(huì)大廈､總理秘書處､外交部和最高法院的主要路口也都設(shè)置了路障,部分地區(qū)實(shí)施交通管制｡首都伊斯蘭堡部分地區(qū)的移動(dòng)電話信號(hào)全部中斷｡除了國(guó)家電視臺(tái)播放有關(guān)穆沙拉夫政治外交生活經(jīng)歷的紀(jì)錄片外,其他所有電視頻道的信號(hào)均被切斷｡巴基斯坦烏爾都語(國(guó)語)媒體受到全面限制,外國(guó)記者對(duì)巴部分敏感地區(qū)的采訪也受到嚴(yán)格限制｡ <br/>　　對(duì)于這次政治危機(jī)的起因,從今年1月起就在伊斯蘭堡學(xué)習(xí)生活的王偉華認(rèn)為:首先,穆沙拉夫總統(tǒng)為了能夠確保繼續(xù)執(zhí)政,不得不采取雷霆手段｡在10月6日的總統(tǒng)選舉中,穆沙拉夫以絕對(duì)優(yōu)勢(shì)獲勝,但因?yàn)榉磳?duì)派候選人就其參選資格入稟最高法院,而最高法院遲遲不確認(rèn)總統(tǒng)選舉結(jié)果,使穆沙拉夫擔(dān)心最高法院最終可能會(huì)做出不利于自己的裁決,因此實(shí)施緊急狀態(tài),清除包括大法官在內(nèi)的持反對(duì)意見的部分最高法院法官｡ <br/>　　其次,穆沙拉夫政府與最高法院矛盾激化,客觀上使得巴政府打擊極端宗教勢(shì)力的行動(dòng)受到掣肘｡最近一段時(shí)期,部落地區(qū)親塔利班的宗教極端勢(shì)力日益猖獗,巴國(guó)內(nèi)安全局勢(shì)惡化,軍方重要目標(biāo)接連遭到恐怖襲擊｡與此同時(shí),穆沙拉夫政府與以最高法院為首的司法部門之間的矛盾不斷激化｡后者在許多問題上都給穆沙拉夫政府制造了不少麻煩,被指嚴(yán)重影響了政府打擊極端勢(shì)力的成效,例如最高法院判決釋放70余名被政府認(rèn)為與恐怖襲擊事件有牽連的嫌疑分子｡ <br/>　　此外,巴基斯坦軍隊(duì)干預(yù)政治的傳統(tǒng)由來已久,這是此次政治危機(jī)的結(jié)構(gòu)性因素｡由于巴長(zhǎng)期面臨巨大的安全威脅,且文官政府多無所作為,使得紀(jì)律嚴(yán)明､精英匯聚的軍隊(duì)自然進(jìn)入國(guó)家政治生活的中心｡當(dāng)政局限入危機(jī)時(shí),軍隊(duì)往往成為事實(shí)上的權(quán)力仲裁者｡ <br/>　　中國(guó)社科院亞太所南亞問題專家葉海林也指出,這種軍隊(duì)在政局危機(jī)中的“調(diào)�！弊饔迷诎突固箽v史上三次演化為軍事政變,陸軍參謀長(zhǎng)由調(diào)停者搖身一變成為國(guó)家的主宰｡而令人出乎意料的是,三次軍事政變的主角后來都創(chuàng)造了巴基斯坦經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展和政治穩(wěn)定的三個(gè)黃金時(shí)期,即阿尤布?汗時(shí)代､齊亞?哈克時(shí)代以及穆沙拉夫時(shí)代｡ <br/>　　更為耐人尋味的是,這三位發(fā)動(dòng)政變的陸軍參謀長(zhǎng)推翻的都是自己的任命者――阿尤布?汗打倒了同樣出身軍旅的伊斯坎德爾?米爾扎總統(tǒng),阿里?布托被自己一手提拔的齊亞?哈克推翻,而穆沙拉夫則在就任陸軍參謀長(zhǎng)兩年后取代了任命他的納瓦茲?謝里夫｡最后一起政變使穆沙拉夫在1999年突然出現(xiàn)在國(guó)際舞臺(tái)上,而后一直身著軍裝治理巴基斯坦,他的政績(jī)也是有目共睹的｡ <br/>　　8年后的今天,穆沙拉夫再施鐵腕｡他向巴基斯坦全國(guó)電視觀眾表示:“這個(gè)國(guó)家正處于危險(xiǎn)關(guān)口,極端分子和恐怖分子正在威脅政府的權(quán)威,而某些司法部門人員對(duì)行政的干涉影響了國(guó)內(nèi)團(tuán)結(jié)｡因此,此時(shí)再不采取行動(dòng),就等于讓巴基斯坦自殺｡我不能坐視這個(gè)國(guó)家自殺!” <br/>　　 <br/>　　穆沙拉夫的“三A”和“三T” <br/>　　 <br/>　　王偉華說,目前在伊斯蘭堡,除了重要政府機(jī)構(gòu)附近路口能看到荷槍實(shí)彈的軍人及供臨時(shí)駐扎用的帳篷外,市區(qū)秩序井然｡市場(chǎng)､商店､學(xué)校等民生設(shè)施均運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)正常｡他所在的國(guó)立現(xiàn)代語言大學(xué)的許多學(xué)生表示,他們已厭倦了政客們的無謂爭(zhēng)斗,認(rèn)為巴基斯坦目前更需要的是穩(wěn)定和發(fā)展,一些人言語中流露出對(duì)穆沙拉夫此次強(qiáng)力手腕的認(rèn)同,不少學(xué)者也肯定穆沙拉夫這幾年的執(zhí)政成績(jī)｡ <br/>　　 <br/>　　“此次實(shí)施緊急狀態(tài)與以往歷次都不同,政府､議會(huì)等國(guó)家機(jī)器繼續(xù)正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)｡穆沙拉夫總統(tǒng)也表示將會(huì)盡快結(jié)束緊急狀態(tài),等到最高法院確認(rèn)其再次當(dāng)選總統(tǒng),就將辭去軍職,并會(huì)如期舉行明年的大選｡”王偉華認(rèn)為,此次事件中“軍管”的色彩非常弱,說明巴基斯坦政治中的軍人因素有弱化的跡象｡ <br/>　　對(duì)于穆沙拉夫的政治前景,很多學(xué)者都會(huì)引用“三個(gè)A”的分析――穆沙拉夫有“Army(軍隊(duì))”､“America(美國(guó))”和“Allah(真主)”的庇護(hù)而垮不了｡ <br/>　　正是為了掌握第一個(gè)“A”,穆沙拉夫才一直選擇擔(dān)任三軍總長(zhǎng)｡資深南亞問題專家黃綺淑稱,巴基斯坦軍隊(duì)有三大特點(diǎn):一是它的軍官已形成社會(huì)的現(xiàn)代化､超宗教同時(shí)親美的精英階層,不但滲透到各行各業(yè),而且比一個(gè)政黨更團(tuán)結(jié);二是軍隊(duì)在穆沙拉夫領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下已嘗到“執(zhí)政”的甜頭,不會(huì)退回到原有狀態(tài);三是穆沙拉夫在軍隊(duì)中仍然是眾望所歸,沒有第二位將領(lǐng)像他那樣鶴立雞群｡ <br/>　　支持穆沙拉夫的第二個(gè)“A”是美國(guó),他有布什政權(quán)的強(qiáng)大靠山｡因?yàn)樵诜纯稚系牟贿z余力,使穆沙拉夫因美國(guó)的支持而贏得西方世界的默認(rèn),巴基斯坦也自“9?11”以來,獲得美國(guó)100億美元的反恐資助｡只要反恐大旗不倒,美國(guó)仍然會(huì)幫他擋掉反對(duì)派所謂“獨(dú)裁者”的攻擊｡關(guān)于第三個(gè)“A”――真主｡穆沙拉夫是信教的,也注意和宗教人士搞統(tǒng)一戰(zhàn)線,這方面問題不大｡ <br/>　　當(dāng)然,穆沙拉夫還有三個(gè)敵人,即所謂的三“T”:Terrorism(恐怖勢(shì)力)､Tribunal Activism(法庭干政)和Twin Democratic Stars(民主雙星)｡ <br/>　　至于恐怖主義的威脅,這是穆沙拉夫多次強(qiáng)調(diào)的,恐怖分子也試圖多次暗殺他｡不久前他乘直升機(jī)旅行時(shí),護(hù)航機(jī)被引爆,他的發(fā)言人被炸傷,他自己幸免遇難｡第二個(gè)“T”――法庭干政,則主要集中于穆沙拉夫和喬杜里之間的矛盾斗爭(zhēng)｡目前,穆沙拉夫看來取得了斗爭(zhēng)勝利｡ <br/>　　而所謂“民主雙星”,則指的是曾當(dāng)選過總理的巴人民黨主席貝?布托和伊斯蘭教聯(lián)盟主席謝里夫｡最近在美國(guó)策劃下,穆沙拉夫與貝?布托達(dá)成默契,貝?布托回國(guó),不受貪污起訴,并擔(dān)任總理,與穆沙拉夫總統(tǒng)形成一種半民主的聯(lián)盟統(tǒng)治｡這是美國(guó)的如意算盤｡ <br/>　　正如王偉華所說的,貝?布托反對(duì)穆沙拉夫,其主要目的還在于利用此次政治危機(jī),彰顯其民主旗手的角色,意在增加與穆沙拉夫政府談判的籌碼,并不意味著將中止與后者的談判進(jìn)程｡畢竟,貝?布托與穆沙拉夫聯(lián)手才是美國(guó)最希望看到的結(jié)局｡ <br/>　　現(xiàn)在看來,恐怖主義已構(gòu)成對(duì)穆沙拉夫的最大威脅｡最近,塔利班在巴基斯坦西北部旅游勝地斯瓦特(Swat)占領(lǐng)了四個(gè)小鎮(zhèn)｡黃綺淑認(rèn)為,將來局勢(shì)稍穩(wěn)以后,穆沙拉夫和布什政權(quán),再加貝?布托一臂之力,都將會(huì)集中到反恐戰(zhàn)線上去｡不過,王偉華認(rèn)為,盡管巴基斯坦政局走勢(shì)將會(huì)趨于平穩(wěn),但復(fù)雜的國(guó)內(nèi)矛盾,決定了這個(gè)伊斯蘭國(guó)家在恢復(fù)民主建立穩(wěn)固民主政治體制方面將任重而道遠(yuǎn)｡ <br/> </p><p style="margin-bottom:10px"><strong>相關(guān)熱詞搜索：</strong><a href="http://www.newchangjing.com/tag/%C9%B3%C0%AD.html" target="_blank">沙拉</a> <a href="http://www.newchangjing.com/tag/%C4%C2%C9%B3%C0%AD%B7%F2%CE%AA%BA%CE%BF%E5%B2%BB%C1%CB%A3%BF.html" target="_blank">穆沙拉夫?yàn)楹慰宀涣耍?/a> <a href="http://www.newchangjing.com/tag/%C4%C2%C9%B3%C0%AD%B7%F2%B1%BB%D6%D0%B9%FA%C2%F4%C1%CB.html" target="_blank">穆沙拉夫被中國(guó)賣了</a> <a href="http://www.newchangjing.com/tag/%C4%C2%C9%B3%C0%AD%B7%F2%D7%EE%D0%C2%CF%FB%CF%A2.html" target="_blank">穆沙拉夫最新消息</a> </p> <p><script type="text/javascript">ok3w_ads("s006");</script></p> <p><span id="w54xp4xzjmf" class="disclaimer"><script 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