Will Acting Premier Ehud Olmert lead Kadima to victory in the March election 　　and keep the peace process on track?
　　
　　ENDING OF HIS ERA: Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s stroke is considered to be the end of his political life
　　One person’s fate can sometimes influence an entire region’s future. Today, this is true of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, a key figure in the Middle East.
　　As of January 11, the 77-year-old leader is in critical condition. Sharon was rushed to the hospital with chest pain on January 4. Medical tests showed that he had suffered a massive stroke and extensive brain hemorrhage. Actually, a minor stroke on December 18 had already turned the world spotlight on Sharon’s health.
　　After surgery, Sharon’s doctors acknowledged that the prime minister had probably suffered irreversible brain damage that would prevent him from returning to office. Director of the Jerusalem Hadassah Hospital Dr. Shlomo Mor-Yosef said that although Sharon had started to recover from a procedure to gradually bring him out of a medically induced coma, his condition remained serious. His aides said they did not expect him to be able to resume his duties as prime minister, according to Scotland’s national newspaper, The Scotsman.
　　In a way, this heralds the end of the political life of the Israeli “bulldozer.” Sharon’s health troubles are causing wide concerns not just in Israel, but also in the entire Mideast and the world at large.
　　
　　PEACE MAKERS: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (left) and Sharon talk during a summit last July in Jerusalem
　　The prime minister’s unexpected stroke has led to the transferring of his political duties to Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, 60, and to his Cabinet. Several hours after Sharon’s prime ministerial authority was transferred to Olmert, the Cabinet convened an emergency meeting. Fortunately, government leaders rallied behind Olmert. After the short meeting, Justice Minister Tzipi Livni told reporters, “The message the Cabinet is sending is that the government is functioning.”
　　“I will do everything in my power to help the interim prime minister lead the government and reach the right decisions, and I am sure the other ministers will do the same,” Livni said.
　　Transportation Minister Meir Sheetrit said, “The government is continuing to work normally, with only a change in personnel.” Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said the defense establishment would continue functioning as usual in the face of deepening chaos in the Gaza Strip. In the light of Sharon’s condition, Likud party chairman Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to postpone the planned resignation of his party’s ministers from the government. He will support Olmert’s leadership and remain in government, thus contributing to the sense of political stability.
　　The end of the Sharon era also spells political tumult in the run-up to the March 28 election, which he was expected to win with a majority. Olmert announced that the general election would be held as scheduled despite Sharon’s critical condition. This has led to an open contest among the Labor party under Amir Peretz, the hawkish Likud party under Netanyahu and Kadima, the party Sharon formed late last year after breaking with Likud.
　　PRAY FOR SHARON:: Israelis pray for Sharon in front of the Wailing Wall on January 6
　　Local polls released on January 6, based on interviews with 650 people and conducted soon after Sharon suffered a major stroke, showed that Kadima would beat the rival parties even without Sharon. The young party, with Olmert at the helm, is expected to win 40 seats of the 120-member Knesset (parliament), while the center-left Labor party may take 18 seats with the center-right Likud taking just 13 seats in the Knesset.
　　The poll also showed that if Vice Premier Shimon Peres were to take over the leadership of the party, Kadima would win 42 seats--exactly the number it would have garnered under a healthy Sharon. However, Peres has stated his firm and full support for Olmert. Senior members of Kadima pledged solid support to Olmert, long-time close associate of Sharon, and widely expected to succeed him as party head. He was among the first to leave the Likud party and join Sharon’s new centrist Kadima.
　　Besides, Olmert and Peres vowed on January 6 to continue Sharon’s policies toward the Palestinians, local newspaper Ha’aretz reported. They vowed to continue “an unhesitating war on terror, as well as an unending effort in the direction of the peace process,” according to the report.
　　An Huihou, former Chinese ambassador to Egypt, believes that as Sharon’s policy on the Palestinians ensured Israelis’ security, the chances for Kadima’s win in the general election were quite optimistic. However, as the Likud and Labor parties were still trying to get members back from Kadima, the future situation could change.
　　International observers noted that no matter who won the general election, national security, economic development, fighting corruption and enhancing people’s living conditions would continue to dominate domestic policy-making.
　　But the sudden, grave illness of Sharon, long championed as capable of bold steps in settling the Palestinian-Israeli conflicts, has sent shock waves across the Israeli political landscape and cast uncertainty over the Middle East peace process. If Sharon’s rivals win the elections, the government’s policy toward Palestine could take on a new look.
　　WORLD FOCUS: A cameraman waits in rain for further information of Sharon’s health situation outside the hospital
　　Sharon’s condition has drawn mixed reactions from the Palestinians--some officials voiced concerns over the possible repercussions on the Israeli political landscape and future prospects of the peace process while Islamic militant groups expressed joy.
　　Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas expressed his concern in a phone call to senior Israeli officials. Abbas and Sharon announced a de facto truce in a landmark summit on February 8, 2005, which led to a 10-month-long period of relative calm.
　　Palestinian Deputy Prime Minister Nabil Shaath asserted that there would be no dramatic change in Israeli policies toward the Palestinians until the March 28 Israeli general election even if Sharon could not run the government. He also said, “I don’t think that there will be another leader among the Israelis like Sharon, although his deputy Ehud Olmert is seen as sharing the same ideas as his.”
　　Musheer al-Masri, spokesman of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in the Gaza Strip, said that the Middle East region would be a better place without Sharon. However, senior Hamas leader Osama Hamdan indicated that the absence of Sharon would have a negative impact on the Mideast peace process and called upon Palestinians to prepare for changes arising from Sharon’s failing health.
　　According to the Xinhua News Agency, the Palestinian side is paying great attention to the following aspects:
　　First, the Palestinians are facing legislative elections on January 25, but the Israeli side has not yet decided on the way for the 200,000 Palestinians in East Jerusalem to participate in the voting.
　　Second, before the Israeli general election, some hardliners on the Israeli side can use the pretext of an uncertain political situation to launch a military attack on the Palestinians.
　　Third, the result of the Israeli elections may influence the entire peace process between the two sides.
　　Other Middle East countries, such as Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Iran, are all curious about Israel’s political future.
　　Being Sharon’s long-term ally, U.S. President George W. Bush also faces a great challenge to adjusting his Middle East policy. The U.S. media sees Sharon’s condition as a setback to the peace process.
　　According to the Xinhua News Agency, Washington needs to secure two aspects. One is to keep Israeli leaders in a post-Sharon situation following the original roadmap, which is taking a firm stance on attacking Palestinian militants and a flexible one on negotiating with the Palestinian authorities on the peace process. The other is to avoid an upsurge in conflicts between Israelis and the Palestinians, and even the Arab world.
　　Bush and Sharon have established an interdependent relationship. If the White House hopes to retie such a link with the Israeli Government, it will have to spend some time to build up mutual trust with future Israeli leaders.
　　

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