A trilateral dialogue mechanism among China, Japan and the United States could hold the key to building mutual trust and greater cooperation
　　
　　Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s continued visits to the Yasukuni Shrine over the past five years have led to a deadlock in the most important relationship in Asia--Sino-Japanese political relations.
　　Even though Koizumi indicates he may quit Japanese politics, his possible successors, such as Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe and Foreign Minister Taro Aso, have shown signs of being hardliners and may hold even stronger views on the shrine visits. In fact, Aso has said that the Japanese Emperor should pay homage at the Yasukuni Shrine. Against this backdrop, the prospects for improved bilateral relations do not appear optimistic.
　　The possibility of tense political relations between China and Japan outweighing the current booming economic ties and harming Japan’s national interests has aroused concern among the Japanese people. Some media that once backed Koizumi’s shrine visits now hold the opposite view.
　　Some Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia have also expressed their opposition to the shrine visits, saying they are proving detrimental to East Asian cooperation. The U.S. media have also changed their stance from one of silence to condemning the visits as needless provocation.
　　But although the Pentagon and U.S. media have been critical, the White House has not taken any serious steps to stop Koizumi. What has, in fact, happened is that the U.S.-Japanese alliance has intensified. Japan, which regards itself as Asia’s leader, and the United States, which sees itself as a world leader, jointly feel challenged by China’s development and have become closer because of their common strategic demands.
　　Japanese politicians are also using democracy as a trump card. They are exaggerating the “China threat” with reasons directly linking to Western-style democracy. Democratic Party of Japan chief Seiji Maehara was clearly alluding to this when he claimed that China was a “real threat.” The Yasukuni Shrine visit is a provocative tactic while exaggerating the “China threat” and playing the democracy card can be viewed as provocative strategy. As far as the United States is concerned, Koizumi’s popularity is low and it is very likely to support the Democratic Party of Japan. Koizumi and Aso are fully aware of this even though they retain their image of being hardliners.
　　
　　Tightrope walking
　　
　　As the only global superpower, the primary goal of America’s global strategy is to prevent the rise of any potential challenger. At the same time, Japan does not want to lose its dominance in Asia. However, the rise of China, a country that has the potential to become a superpower and is expanding its influence in East Asia, constantly gets on the nerves of the “global leader” and the “regional leader.” Thus, containing China’s rise seems to be the common strategic goal of both countries.
　　The United States uses Japan not only to contain China, but also to control Japan itself, seen as an untrustworthy ally. Meanwhile, it also needs Japan to cope with regional crises and non-traditional security challenges. Tokyo latches on to Washington not just for their common goal but also to use U.S. support to compete with neighboring countries for oil and gas resources. In this respect, Japan’s actions run counter to U.S. strategic expectations, and U.S. strategic demands are very likely to be fully used by Japan.
　　Currently, the deepening and widening of Sino-U.S. cooperation has reached unprecedented levels in areas of the economy, politics and diplomacy. Most Asia-Pacific countries, including some U.S. allies, are watching relations between Beijing and Washington keenly. They do not want to make a simple choice in any confrontation and conflict between the two sides. However, Japan, a country that usually allies with the strong, is an exception.
　　The United States also has its own difficulty when dealing with Japan. According to the Rand Corporation, a well-known think tank based in California, the United States stands with other Asian countries on preventing Japan from becoming a bellicose country. However, it is caught between binding Japan and encouraging the country to play a bigger military role worldwide; between encouraging China to be a responsible stakeholder in the international system and its Asian strategy of putting Japan in the center; between regarding Japan as a compliant little brother and supporting Japan to be a permanent member of the UN Security Council and making it a core member of the world power center. Observers believe that when Japanese politicians’ pointless provocation reaches a critical level, the United States might unwillingly get involved in Sino-Japanese disputes or even conflicts.
　　
　　Ray of hope
　　
　　Counter to the global trend of peace, development and cooperation on the basis of globalization and strengthening of interdependence, a Cold War mindset still exists in Northeast Asia and is intensifying. One indication of this is the strengthening of the U.S.-Japanese military alliance.
　　Traditional military alliances cannot resolve all the security challenges of today. International terrorism, sea transportation security, epidemics, transnational crime, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and environmental deterioration have become urgent global non-traditional security challenges. Containing any country using the excuse of an “emergency in surrounding areas” can kill the budding regional cooperation in East Asia, restrain the vigor of regional sustainable development and trigger panic.
　　Relations among China, the United States and Japan are important to the Asia-Pacific region and the world at large. Deterioration of any bilateral relationship can affect the other two country relations. To avoid this, measures should be taken to establish the mechanism of trilateral dialogue among China, the United States and Japan.
　　The Bush administration has changed its strategy toward China, saying it hopes China will become a responsible stakeholder in the international system. The Sino-U.S. strategic dialogue is deepening and the two sides are fostering mutual trust.
　　As two important neighboring countries, China and Japan need to find a way to live in a friendly, mutually respectful and mutually beneficial environment. Otherwise, peace and stability in East Asia and in the Asia-Pacific region will remain uncertain.
　　It is impossible for East Asian countries to interact with Asia-Pacific powers without an improvement in Sino-Japanese relations. A strategic dialogue mechanism among the United States, Japan and South Korea, as well as among the United States, Japan and Australia, has already been established. China, the United States and Japan need to foster a better atmosphere for political dialogue and show the political courage to promote a government-level trilateral dialogue mechanism.
　　
　　The author is director of the Division of American Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations

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