2010年伊始,終于傳來(lái)股指期貨獲得國(guó)務(wù)院原則通過(guò)的消息,期待已久的股指期貨即將進(jìn)入中國(guó)投資者的視野和生活中,它是中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)創(chuàng)新的重要里程碑,標(biāo)志著中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)自此走向多層次,變革將由此展開。
　　
　　5年磨一劍
　　從2004年開始醞釀到如今修成正果,股指期貨的推出走過(guò)了5個(gè)多年頭。期間,幾次聲起又幾次聲落。
　　2004年,上證所開始著手開發(fā)股指期貨。2006年,中國(guó)金融期貨交易所股份有限公司公布了“滬深300指數(shù)期貨暫定合約”,為股指期貨做了技術(shù)準(zhǔn)備,股指期貨會(huì)員結(jié)算體系以及股指期貨技術(shù)系統(tǒng)陸續(xù)就緒。
　　2007年是重要的一年,管理層推出股指期貨的步伐明顯加快。
　　當(dāng)時(shí)的氣氛給投資者的感覺,股指期貨呼之欲出,很多證券期貨公司紛紛舉辦股指期貨培訓(xùn)班和講習(xí)班。但是,由于當(dāng)時(shí)中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)正在全面實(shí)施股權(quán)全流通改革,其過(guò)程異常艱巨,從監(jiān)管部門到市場(chǎng)各方參與者都投身其中,股指期貨被無(wú)聲地拖后了。
　　此后全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā),中國(guó)股市處在劇烈的動(dòng)蕩中,此時(shí)推出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更大,更不易把握的股指期貨顯然不合時(shí)宜。
　　2009年,創(chuàng)業(yè)板創(chuàng)立。特別是市場(chǎng)迎來(lái)了全流通的時(shí)代,市場(chǎng)規(guī)模得到了發(fā)展,有了一個(gè)比較成熟的有足夠大規(guī)模的藍(lán)籌股市場(chǎng),股指期貨的推出已是勢(shì)所必然,水到渠成。
　　
　　漲跌都能賺錢
　　相對(duì)于以前的產(chǎn)品,股指期貨是一種全新的概念,從名字就可看出,這是一個(gè)身跨兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)的產(chǎn)品,既離不開股市,又具有期貨的特點(diǎn),它的推出將深刻改變中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的面貌格局。
　　股指期貨的推出將在真正意義上開啟一個(gè)金融產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新的時(shí)代,緩解產(chǎn)品同質(zhì)化所可能帶來(lái)的市場(chǎng)共振和系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。市場(chǎng)變得相對(duì)溫和平穩(wěn),過(guò)去現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)每有并購(gòu)和重組消息,必然引起一輪大的投機(jī)波動(dòng),引入股指期貨將有效平抑這類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因?yàn)?單向交易容易導(dǎo)致過(guò)度投機(jī),而股指期貨的出現(xiàn),任何時(shí)間段都出現(xiàn)了多空兩種力量真正的對(duì)壘、制衡,它在一定程度上可以穩(wěn)定市場(chǎng),以前單向交易的時(shí)候,很容易導(dǎo)致過(guò)度投機(jī),在一個(gè)時(shí)間段,大家都是多頭,利好政策一出臺(tái),大家都拼命做多,拼命往高拉,拉的越高賺錢越多,機(jī)構(gòu)越好出貨。另一個(gè)時(shí)間段,大家都是空頭,利空政策出臺(tái)了,大家都拼命拋單,你也拋,他也拋,容易造成暴漲暴跌。
　　在金融危機(jī)中可以看到,股指期貨作為重要的資產(chǎn)配置工具,非常有利于投資者迅速、靈活地調(diào)整和優(yōu)化其資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu),是構(gòu)建具有規(guī)避系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)特征金融產(chǎn)品的基礎(chǔ)。在這樣的市場(chǎng)里面,投資者賺錢會(huì)有更多的機(jī)會(huì)。通過(guò)賣出一定量的股指期貨合約,可以有效改變組合資產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益特征,促進(jìn)基金等投資產(chǎn)品的多樣化,滿足不同類型的投資需求。
　　作為雙向交易的重要手段,股指期貨能夠發(fā)揮大盤藍(lán)籌股價(jià)值的正向作用。股指期貨將使更多資金聚集到大盤藍(lán)籌股周圍,以滬深300為代表的大盤藍(lán)籌績(jī)優(yōu)股將突出。過(guò)去20年來(lái),股民習(xí)慣炒題材股,股票市場(chǎng)要講故事,這種情況,恐怕將會(huì)被大盤藍(lán)籌股所取代。作為股指期貨重要標(biāo)的的大藍(lán)籌股,將對(duì)市場(chǎng)起到中流砥柱的作用。
　　
　　謹(jǐn)慎對(duì)待小心參與
　　從國(guó)外資本市場(chǎng)來(lái)看,股指期貨和股市的發(fā)展是同步的,而中國(guó)是在股市發(fā)展了16年之后才推出,這在歷史上是沒有先例的。
　　總的說(shuō)來(lái),股指期貨推出肯定對(duì)大盤有正面作用,但不會(huì)改變市場(chǎng)原來(lái)的運(yùn)行趨向。而股市從單邊運(yùn)行改為雙向運(yùn)行,長(zhǎng)周期的波動(dòng)會(huì)降低,但短周期的波動(dòng)會(huì)增加。正因?yàn)楣芍钙谪泴?duì)股指有助漲助跌作用,某些權(quán)重股股價(jià)的波動(dòng)也直接影響到股指乃至股指期貨的波動(dòng),所以對(duì)股市投資者來(lái)說(shuō),即使是只買賣股票而不參與股指期貨交易,也應(yīng)對(duì)股指期貨有所了解,否則賠了錢也不知道是怎么賠的。
　　在期貨市場(chǎng)的確有很多散戶變成大戶,但是這樣的人畢竟是少數(shù)。新的政策推出后,市場(chǎng)將會(huì)有個(gè)尋求均衡的過(guò)程,開始的時(shí)候市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)會(huì)超出人們的預(yù)期,但會(huì)逐漸趨于平緩。廣大散戶,特別是在股票市場(chǎng)里市值在幾十萬(wàn)以下的投資者,要學(xué)會(huì)看股指期貨的價(jià)值波動(dòng),以及形成延期價(jià)格的預(yù)期,思量自己手中的現(xiàn)貨股票應(yīng)該怎么做,最好是多看少動(dòng)。除非是有非常好的對(duì)價(jià)值的預(yù)期,有期貨的操作經(jīng)驗(yàn),能管得住自己,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制也不錯(cuò),否則就不要輕易參與股指期貨的買賣,特別是在股票市場(chǎng)里基本上做得不錯(cuò),就更不要參與股指期貨的炒作。
　　
　　Stock-index futures will open a new era for innovation of financial products in real sense, and will reduce the possibility of market resonance and systematic risk resulted from product homogeneity, therefore the market will become more mild and steady. In the past, news of merger or restructuring in cash markets would necessarily arouse a new round of speculation fluctuation, whereas this kind of risks can be effectively leveled if stock-index futures is introduced into market. This is because one-way trade will easily lead to excessive speculation, while stock-index futures can result in genuine contravallation and counterbalance of two powers including “buy up and bear off’ in any period of time that can stabilize the market in a certain degree. One-way trade can easily lead to excessive speculation. In a certain period of time, everyone is buying up, especially when bullish policy is promulgated, and the more people are buying up, the higher the price is raised, the more profits they get and the more easily the institutions sell. On the other hand, in some other period of time, everyone is bearing off, and when bad policy is promulgated, they are selling off, which can easily result in rise and slump suddenly and steeply.
　　It can be discovered from the financial crisis that, as an important tool of asset allocation, stock-index futures is very beneficial for the investors to rapidly and neatly regulate and optimize the asset structure and it is the basis for manufacturing the financial products characterized by avoiding systematic risks. In this kind of market, investors will have more opportunities to earn money. By selling a certain amount of stock-index futures contracts, they can efficiently change the risk-return feature of the portfolio and boost investment products such as funds towards diversification to satisfy investment needs of different types.
　　As an important tool for two-way trade, stock-index futures is able to play a positive role as big board blue chips. It will attract more capital to the big board blue chips, which, represented by Hushen 300 Index, will perform excellently. For the past 20 years, the stock holders have been used to buy subject shares and story-telling in stock market. Nevertheless, this will be replaced by the big board blue chips which will play a pivotal role in market as the important subject matter of the stock-index futures.

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