MAKING AN EFFORT: UN Secretary General Kofi Annan meets Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki on September 2 in Tehran to discuss pressing issues, including the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, during his recent Middle East tour
　　
　　For all the talk that there were no winners in the war between Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas, some experts have identified Israel and the Government of Lebanon as beneficiaries as the vested parties address the aftermath of the conflict.
　　“Southern Lebanon began to be handed over to the government forces of Lebanon and UN forces after the war,” said Yin Gang, a research fellow with the Institute of West Asian and African Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). “The move not only freed Israel from the disturbance of Hezbollah but also helped the Lebanese Government gain effective control over the region for the first time in 38 years.”
　　Palestinian militants controlled the region in the 1970s. From 1982 to 2000, it was occupied by Israel. It then fell into the hands of Hezbollah when Israeli forces pulled out in 2000.
　　As the UN unfolds its peacekeeping program, Chinese experts hailed the efforts of the world body while singling out the challenges that lie ahead.
　　
　　Peace mission
　　
　　In a UN meeting of troop-contributing nations in late August, at least 32 countries promised troops or support for an international force in southern Lebanon to monitor the ceasefire arranged between Israel and Hezbollah. Overall, 20 nations detailed their commitments to provide support for the force in the meeting.
　　Italy and France confirmed that they would lead the early vanguard of peacekeepers by sending some 2,500 and 2,000 troops, respectively.
　　“I think we’re in business,” Assistant Secretary General for Peacekeeping Hedi Annabi was quoted by the Associated Press as saying. “On the basis of the offers we have now received, we can now start structuring that deployment and move ahead with it very quickly.”
　　UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 34 days of fighting, authorizes an increase in the troop strength of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, originally created by the UN Security Council in 1978, to a maximum of 15,000 troops.
　　For Yin from the CASS, it is no surprise that the European Union (EU) is leading the peacekeeping mission in Lebanon. He noted that the United States suffered from its previous interventions in the region. In 1982, a total of 241 members of U.S. armed forces died in the bombing of the U.S. military barrack in Beirut by a suspected Hezbollah faction. Currently, the United States is heavily burdened in Iraq, making it possible for the EU to play a major role in Lebanon, said the expert.
　　Yin pointed out that France started to interfere in the affairs of Lebanon in the mid-19th century. Lebanon was under the French mandate from the end of World War I to the end of World War II. He said France is historically obliged to help Lebanon. “It is right and proper that the French should command the UN force,” he said. “However, France is willing to shoulder the responsibility but reluctant to take risks.” 　　When UN Resolution 1701 was first unveiled, France hesitated for some 10 days to commit the thousands of troops it had earlier offered because of its doubts about the authorization, rules and security of the peacekeeping mission. It announced it was prepared to send only 200 troops, but in the end, it committed to sending more troops amid increasing international criticism of its backtracking from its original stance.
　　Yin noted that as a Mediterranean country, Italy is poised to exert an influence over Lebanon. It is foreseeable that its international standing will be elevated as it undertakes to construct peace in this culturally and politically intricate region together with its partners.
　　Echoing UN Secretary General Kofi Annan’s words, the official newspaper People’s Daily commented that the EU has provided the “backbone” of the peacekeeping force in Lebanon. The EU’s initiative has several symbolic meanings, according to the newspaper.
　　Since the European Constitution was vetoed in France and the Netherlands in 2005, the EU has been “curing its wounds,” a period that is characterized by slowed progress in common foreign and security policy, the People’s Daily article said. The attempt to lead UN forces in Lebanon presents the union with an opportunity to reunify European powers. It is believed that sending more troops to Lebanon has more to do with the EU’s concern about its own solidarity than maintaining peace in Lebanon. If it can succeed in carrying out the complex peacekeeping mission, the credibility of the EU common foreign and security policy will be greatly enhanced, it noted.
　　Also, the article said that while the unilateral and preemptive policy of the United States has triggered widespread disapproval, the EU has taken the moral high ground to promote regional dialogue and reconciliation with its advantageous soft power. As European peacekeepers work side by side with their Muslim counterparts in Lebanon, the EU stands a good chance of communicating with the Islamic world and thus gaining its trust. As a result, it will become more confident and be able to restrain U.S. unilateralism more efficiently.
　　
　　An uphill battle
　　
　　PEACE COMMITMENT: Peacekeepers at the Toulon naval base in France prepare to set out for Lebanon on September 3
　　
　　Although the peacekeeping mission is in high gear, challenges persist. Li Guofu, Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), pointed out that the disarming of Hezbollah poses the biggest challenge. “UN resolutions 1701 and 1559 [passed in 2004] both call for the disarming of Hezbollah,” he said. “At present, I’m afraid this objective can hardly be achieved in the near future.”
　　Yan Xuetong, Director of the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University, is even more pessimistic. According to him, it is impossible to disarm the guerrillas since the prospect is unacceptable to Hezbollah. It is unrealistic to expect a quick disarmament of the guerrillas, as efforts made to that end in recent years have all turned out to be futile, he said. 　　“Israel admitted that it had made little progress this time,” he said. “Lebanon is not adequately equipped to disarm Hezbollah. Had it been possible, the Lebanese Government would have disarmed the organization well before the international community urged it to do so.”
　　Yin of the CASS told Beijing Review that the peacekeeping program resulted from the compromise of different parties and does not carry major risks. He said the international force is not charged with disarming Hezbollah, a task that should only be shouldered by the Lebanese Government. According to him, the force is responsible for monitoring the situation, preventing Hezbollah guerrillas from operating publicly and forestalling the resurgence of the conflict. It is expected to aid the government forces of Lebanon as they gain effective control over Lebanese territory.
　　At the same time, Yin is fully aware of the harsh, volatile situation in the Middle East. The internal affairs of Lebanon are susceptible to foreign influence, he noted, adding that should an armed conflict arise because of the mishandling of the Iranian nuclear issue, Hezbollah, which receives support from Iran, would not “stand idly by.”
　　The complexity of the problem was highlighted during Annan’s recent tour to the Middle East, largely aimed at shoring up the truce between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel rejected his call that the country immediately lift its sea and air blockade of Lebanon and withdraw its forces once 5,000 international troops are deployed. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert indicated Israel would only allow free movement after the full implementation of the UN-brokered ceasefire.
　　Li of the CIIS argued that Annan has no “magic wand” in his hand and certainly is not able to enforce the truce just through a tour of the region. His visits and meetings with relevant parties could play a positive role in consolidating the ceasefire and facilitating the implementation of UN Resolution 1701 but there is no reason to expect that all problems can be settled during one Middle East tour, he said.
　　Yan of Tsinghua University said he believes it is difficult to realize a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon. As Hezbollah supporters return to the region, Israel is worried that it may be seized by Hezbollah guerrillas again, he said, adding that there is the question of the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping, as the international force is not expected to fight the guerrillas.
　　Yan commented that Annan’s brokering of a prisoner swap would be the biggest achievement of his tour. After visiting Lebanon and Israel, the UN chief said in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah that Israel and Hezbollah accepted UN mediation on freeing two captive Israeli soldiers. He also disclosed that he would appoint a mediator to work secretly with the two sides. It is the first time that Israel, which has insisted on an unconditional release of the soldiers, has agreed to indirect contacts with the Lebanese Shiite group through a mediator, according to media reports.
　　Experts seem to be cautious about the future of this hotly contested region. Noting that Hezbollah has recently admitted it would not have kidnapped two Israeli soldiers had it known the abductions would start a war, Yin of the CASS commented that the remark was merely meant to appease public anger, win political support and shift the responsibility to Israel.
　　Yan perceived a sign of tension from Olmert’s recognition of Israel’s setbacks in the armed conflict. His view was that the assault against Hezbollah did not proceed as planned---seizing the region and eradicating the guerrillas within a few days---a failure that underscores the need for Israel to boost its national defense forces. He predicted that the prime minister would take a tougher stance regarding the ending of the blockade of Lebanon and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the south of the country.

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