Since a highly pathogenic strain of the bird flu virus made the leap from birds to humans in Hong Kong in 1997, the threat of an all-out pandemic has never been more serious than right now. Having spread to 15 countries, from Iraq to Austria and then into Nigeria in the past month alone, the total number of countries with a confirmed presence of the virus has risen to more than 30. According to statistics from the World Health Organization (WHO), the disease has infected at least 175 people since 2003, killing 95.
　　
　　Need to be vigilant
　　
　　A 9-year-old girl in east China’s Zhejiang Province died from bird flu March 7, bringing the country’s death toll from the disease to 10. This is the fifth fatality in China in 2006.
　　Following a steady accumulation of new human cases since the beginning of this year, the Central Government has on several recent occasions loudly reaffirmed its commitment to controlling the possible pandemic.
　　Agriculture Minister Du Qinglin said at a televised conference on animal disease control February 20 that in view of the current situation, the possibility of a massive bird flu outbreak could not be ruled out. His words set alarm bells ringing.
　　At a March 2 cabinet conference, Chinese Vice Premier Hui Liangyu warned that the spring season held a possibility of bird flu prevalence and outbreaks and there still existed the danger that more human cases would appear.
　　On the same occasion, Hui demanded that governments at all levels make more efforts in six key areas of prevention work, including vaccination of poultry, outbreak surveillance systems in rural areas, drafting of contingency plans, inspection of animal slaughter, medical treatment of human cases and scientific research in development of vaccines, anti-viral medicines and routes of migratory birds.
　　Besides optimizing domestic resources in fighting bird flu, the Chinese Government has also sent a clear message that worldwide coordination is vital to curb a human pandemic. The Associated Press reported an unidentified Ministry of Agriculture official as saying “the international community should further improve the information-sharing mechanism for the disease” at a three-day technical meeting of international public health experts convened by WHO that began March 6. The official also expressed hope that other countries would follow China’s role in submitting bird-flu virus samples to international organizations in a timely fashion, as China is one of only a handful of developing countries to have done so. Last December, China for the first time handed over human virus samples to WHO, which were taken from two human fatalities in Anhui Province.
　　In a March 7 interview with Xinhua News Agency, China’s leading pandemic control expert Zhong Nanshang said he admires the government’s efforts in monitoring wild poultry and some cities’ initiatives to monitor serious cases of pneumonia. He believes that the information release system is being improved, and research and development of vaccines have made progress. Zhong identified his biggest concern as insufficient public awareness over methods of transmission and symptoms, which could delay the reporting of a suspected case and undermine prevention efforts.
　　Sinovac Biotech Co. Ltd. is the only company in China that has been ratified to develop a human vaccine against bird flu. CEO Yin Weidong told Beijing Review that he was greatly encouraged by the foresight and concern of top Chinese leaders regarding the anti-bird flu campaign. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Vice Premier Wu Yi paid a field visit to Sinovac last November, when the development of the first human vaccine in the country was at a critical stage. Yin, whose company delivers an internal briefing to the Ministry of Health, Ministry of Science and Technology and State Food and Drug Administration every week, said China’s top leaders are being timely and comprehensively informed of the latest national and international situation of virus mutation.
　　
　　What if the virus mutated?
　　
　　BEAUTIFUL BUT DANGEROUS: Poland detected its first case of H5N1 bird flu in two swans found dead in Torun in the northern part of the country March 3
　　Pet owners in some areas of Germany have been required to keep their cats indoors and their dogs on a leash after the country confirmed the death of a cat from the H5N1 bird flu virus March 2. This was the first mammal to succumb to the virus in EU countries. The death has fueled scientists’ fears that the virus is mutating into a form that could easily jump to other animals and people, and be transmitted from human to human, increasing the danger of the current situation, in which people only get the disease through contact with sick or dead birds.
　　According to a WHO newsletter, each additional human case gives the virus an opportunity to evolve toward human-to-human transmission.
　　Out of such worries, the U.S. federal health authorities have recently authorized research on a second vaccine, based on a mutated virus sample from Indonesia.
　　All the human vaccines developed by a handful of companies from countries including the United States, France, Australia, Britain, Japan and China are based on a virus sample taken in 2004 from Viet Nam, which was provided by the WHO.
　　Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University vaccine expert, has praised the decision by U.S. authorities, saying in an Associated Press report it would “keep right on the tail of the virus and keep our vaccines as up to date as much as we can.”
　　But Yin from Sinovac has a different view on the necessity to have a second recipe to develop an effective vaccine. He said that all vaccines under development worldwide are mockup vaccines, which are not designed for direct use but only as a base for easy modification if there is a large-scale, animal-to-human transmission. “As of now, we are not sure how the H5N1 virus would mutate,” said Yin. “What we could best do is to complete the development of the first human vaccine.” He added that WHO still only encourages human vaccine development based on the 2004 virus sample from Viet Nam. Sinovac’s human vaccine is now at the first stage of human testing, with results expected at the end of May. If its tested doses prove effective and safe, Sinovac could produce at least 2 million doses in one year.
　　All the vaccines being developed at the current stage are targeted at bird-to-human transmission. If the virus continues mutating and gains the ability to spread among people, new vaccines would need to be developed based on different virus samples.
　　
　　Disturbing finding
　　
　　VIRUS TESTING: Medical staff in Iraq conduct bird flu checkups on poultry after the country confirmed its first human case in January
　　According to Dr. Henk Bekedam, WHO representative in China, vaccinated birds could incubate the disease without showing symptoms, allowing low-level spread among birds and possible spread to humans. He told Beijing Review, “It is believed that birds that are vaccinated can continue to carry and excrete the virus without showing symptoms of illness.”
　　This may be the reason for one of China’s human deaths from bird flu. A 32-year-old man from southern Guangdong Province died March 2 in an area that has not reported any outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus over the past year. The man, who fell ill after visiting a live poultry market several times to conduct research, is the first human case in China from an urban area, and he could be the first person in China catching the virus from seemingly healthy poultry.
　　The possible scenario that poultry infected by the virus could not fall ill but still spread the virus to other animals and human beings could make prevention work even trickier.
　　One area of relief for prevention work is, according to Chinese Vice Health Minister Wang Longde, that the bird flu virus in China has not mutated into a human virus and would not cause human-to-human transmission at present.
　　Commenting on the death case in Guangdong, Zhong Nanshan said it’s possible that live poultry may also carry the bird flu virus and that other animals, including cats and pigs, may also be infected. But he added that people should not be overly worried about the spread of bird flu, saying that the majority of people are not sensitive to the current strain. The urgent task at present is to carry out nationwide publicity as quickly as possible.

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