The global economy takes a downward turn after years of explosive growth 　　 　　The world economy took on a somewhat bleaker outlook this year after undergoing extraordinary growth in 2004 and 2005. There is evidence that it has passed the peak of the current business cycle.
　　
　　Developed world
　　
　　The U.S. economy grew less rapidly than before. The gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States grew by 5.6 percent, 2.6 percent and 1.6 percent respectively year on year in the first three quarters of the year (figures were adjusted for seasonal variation). The growth rate in the third quarter was at the lowest level since it hit 1.2 percent in the first quarter of 2003.
　　The chaotic real estate market was indicative of a further slowdown in the U.S. economy. It is estimated that the sluggish trend will last from the fourth quarter of this year to next year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the U.S. GDP would grow by 3.4 percent this year and 2.9 percent next year in the World Economic Outlook it released in September. At present, however, it is questionable whether the U.S. economy can live up to the IMF’s expectations this year.
　　Since the beginning of the new century, the euro zone and the European Union (EU) have been lacking the momentum for economic growth. Germany, which used to be the locomotive of the EU economy, was reduced to the ranks of “newly declining countries” along with Japan. The annual GDP growth rates of the euro zone and the EU were only 1.4 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively, last year. The European economy made a comeback early this year with its GDP growing 0.6 percent month on month and 1.9 percent year on year in the first quarter and 0.9 percent month on month and 2.6 percent year on year in the second quarter. In the third quarter, however, the growth in the euro zone slowed down. The monthly growth rate was 0.5 percent, lower than the expected 0.7 percent.
　　Recently released figures show that Japan’s GDP grew by 0.5 percent in real terms month on month in the third quarter of this year, or 2 percent year on year, exceeding expectations. However, industrial growth stagnated. In September, industrial output dropped by 0.7 percent from the previous month with the number of equipment orders falling dramatically. Given this trend, the Bank of Japan, the Japanese central bank, which had ended its zero interest rate policy, was extremely cautious about raising interest rates.
　　
　　Developing world
　　
　　TAPPING PETRODOLLARS: A Russian worker operates a gas pipe valve in a Siberian gas field. Russia has benefited greatly from soaring oil and gas prices in recent years
　　Developing economies continued their strong growth this year. Emerging markets accounted for over half of the global economic output in 2005, during which they posted GDP growth of $1.6 trillion, in comparison with the $1.4 trillion of the developed countries. Their share of world exports has jumped from 20 percent in 1970 to 42 percent today. In the World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected the growth in emerging markets and developing countries at 7.3 percent this year, double the estimated 3.1 percent for developed countries. According to the IMF, emerging economies will grow at slightly less than 6 percent over the next five years, still double the growth rate of developed economies. If this trend is sustained, emerging economies will account for two thirds of the global economic output in two decades.
　　Of the developing countries, China and India registered the most robust economic growth. Their GDP grew by 10.9 percent and 9.3 percent, respectively, in the first half of this year. The countries’ respective annual GDP growth this year is expected to reach around 10 percent and 7.6 percent. The annual GDP growth for Asia as a whole was estimated at about 6.5 percent this year and that for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations at 5.5 percent.
　　Benefiting from the skyrocketing primary commodity demands of East Asia, especially China, and the growing demands of manufactured goods of the United States, Latin American countries underwent notable growth in 2006. Though not as strong as in Asian countries, their progress was still impressive given their economic performances in the previous years.
　　Russia stood out among the emerging markets in 2006. Owing to soaring oil prices, Russia has enjoyed rapid economic growth in recent years. As its fiscal revenue and capital reserves increased dramatically, it paid off its debts owed to the Paris Club of creditor nations this year in advance.
　　However, the fallout was that its currency kept gaining in value. In the first half of this year, it appreciated 9.7 percent against the dollar and 4.7 percent against the euro. As a result, the country’s manufacturers suffered. They not only had to confront the competition for investments and human resources with the formidable energy industry, but also were dealt a heavy blow by rising production costs and cheap foreign goods that poured in.
　　At the same time, against the backdrop of a general economic recovery, the appreciation of the ruble meant a potentially large profit margin for real estate speculators. Consequently, a large amount of foreign investment surged into Russia’s real estate market. In the first half of this year, Russia received $23.4 billion in foreign investment, up nearly 50 percent over the same period last year. Nobody can tell how much of this amount went into the real estate sector. The torrent of investment is set to expand Russia’s real estate bubble.
　　
　　Foreign direct investment
　　
　　International trade made strides this year and is likely to maintain rapid growth next year. The annual international trade growth was 7.4 percent in 2005 and is expected to exceed 8 percent this year. Despite the suspension of the Doha Round of global trade talks, the growth rate may still approach 8 percent next year.
　　The downward turn of primary commodity prices was the most prominent feature in international trade this year. Primary products have had a bull market in recent years, with crude oil prices hitting nearly $80 per barrel and the gold price passing the benchmark of $700 per ounce. However, the soaring prices did not last too long. In the most recent couple of months, oil prices have plummeted. After reaching the historical high of $78.40 per barrel on July 14, the unit price of Brent crude, Dubai crude and West Texas Intermediate fell to $57.92 per barrel, $55.90 per barrel and $61.18 per barrel, respectively, by September 26. Prices of other primary products are also showing signs of going down. The persistent bull market is bound to take a dive as the demand for primary commodities increases at a slower pace, given the slowdown in global GDP growth, while their supply keeps growing quickly.
　　The global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow rose substantially from 2004 to 2005. According to the World Investment Report 2006 published by the UN Conference on Trade and Development, global FDI inflows amounted to $916 billion in 2005, up 29 percent from the previous year. Flows to developed countries rose 37 percent to $542 billion. Those to developing countries surged 22 percent in 2005 to reach a record $334 billion. In percentage terms, developed countries attracted 59 percent of global FDI, developing countries attracted 36 percent and southeastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States accounted for the remaining 4 percent.
　　Notably, a number of developing and transition economies have recently surfaced as important home countries of FDI. Between 1990 and 2005, the number of such economies with outward stocks of FDI of more than $5 billion increased from six to 25. Last year, transnational corporations based in developing or transition economies, but excluding major offshore financial centers, generated FDI outflows of $120 billion, the highest level ever recorded. Asia accounted for almost 70 percent of these capital flows. The list of top developing-economy sources in 2005 was led by Hong Kong, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Brazil and the Chinese mainland.
　　However, this FDI rush may not be sustainable. The rapid growth of global FDI in 2005 was partly powered by the feeling of optimism over global economic growth at the time. Also, the interest rates in international financial markets were relatively low, keeping the costs of FDI flows at a low level. However, the costs now are tending to rise, given the less positive outlook for investment and worldwide interest rate hikes.
　　The downside of foreign investment has become evident in many countries. The conflict between foreign investors and the government and general public of the host country has escalated. The global FDI flow might decline in the coming years. Even if it keeps growing as further investments pour into the countries to finance follow-up projects, the growth rate will not be as high as before.
　　

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