最近幾周從中國傳來的消息很嚇人。幾乎每天都有關(guān)于罷工和示威的報道，當(dāng)中有些是暴力的，有些參與人數(shù)上萬人。數(shù)以百萬計的工人正要失業(yè)，經(jīng)濟指示器似乎預(yù)兆著更為慘淡的前景，10月電子行業(yè)生產(chǎn)下降4%，這是十年來首次下降。甚至連看似永不滿足的石油需求也在下降：中國國家石油公司近日表示，由于工業(yè)生產(chǎn)放緩，最近幾個月的需求“大幅度”下降，而且還會進一步下降。

　　那么，被一位歷史學(xué)者稱為“脆弱的超級大國”的中國是否將經(jīng)歷它的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人和外界許多分析家以及學(xué)者多年來所擔(dān)心的事情——中國經(jīng)濟猛烈收縮，可能導(dǎo)致社會動蕩在十多億人口中蔓延？

　　一些受人尊敬的學(xué)者確實這么認(rèn)為。紐約大學(xué)斯坦恩商學(xué)院教授羅比尼（Nouriel Roubini）多年來一直警告未來金融破裂的危險。他最近寫道：“中國硬著陸的風(fēng)險明顯提升。中國2009年的經(jīng)濟增長率非�？赡芙抵�7%（僅比‘硬著陸’的6%好一點），而且不能排除更糟糕的結(jié)果�！钡�有些分析家（當(dāng)中很多是中國問題專家）認(rèn)為，中國的眾多獨特因素將令中國得以回避最糟糕的全球經(jīng)濟放緩，而且可以讓中國2009年的經(jīng)濟保住體面的8%增長率。

　　該相信誰呢？畢竟這不是一個小問題。美國、日本和歐洲同時步入衰退，中國作為世界經(jīng)濟支柱之一獨自屹立，它可能安然度過這次金融海嘯，并甚至可能帶動部分亞洲地區(qū)。

　　在我看來，我會贊成那些本土經(jīng)濟學(xué)家，他們的評估考慮到中國一些不一定可以精確量化的特性。這一群體普遍認(rèn)為，盡管未來幾個月情況相當(dāng)不好，但北京在11月中旬宣布的近6000億美元財政方案，加上一系列其他措施，中國經(jīng)濟不至于深陷麻煩。誠如身在北京的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家葛藝豪（Arthur Kroeber）所言，驅(qū)動中國非凡經(jīng)濟增長的那些因素將為GDP增長提供高達6%或7%的基礎(chǔ)。經(jīng)營咨詢公司龍洲經(jīng)訊（Dragonomics）的葛藝豪認(rèn)為，如果不從這個基礎(chǔ)上看，可能就會錯過一些潛在的驅(qū)動器。首先，普通工人需要照顧的人數(shù)大約是1976年時的一半，騰出了很多可支配收入，這個事實帶來了龐大的人口紅利。然后，中國可以從海外公司那里或多或少地取得免費的新技術(shù)，發(fā)展經(jīng)濟學(xué)家把這種現(xiàn)象稱為“技術(shù)趕超”。目前每年大約有1500萬人搬到中國城市，道路、橋梁和醫(yī)院等基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的的投資給經(jīng)濟帶來極大的推動力。

　　美林最近也預(yù)計明年的增長會多加三個百分點。在別的經(jīng)濟體，這樣的增長是無法實現(xiàn)的。例如，無論美國拿出怎樣的刺激方案，增長都不大可能增長一個百分點。但中國是不同的。它仍然是獨特的混合體：狂暴的資本主義棲身于國有企業(yè)基礎(chǔ)之上。美林指出，中國國有企業(yè)仍占工業(yè)生產(chǎn)的33%，占中國城市投資的45%，而且北京仍然掌握國內(nèi)銀行業(yè)，特別是當(dāng)危機可能威脅到黨的權(quán)力的時候。一位有十年中國經(jīng)驗的投行分析家表示，從外界看來，中國的銀行確實很像普通的西方商業(yè)銀行，但每一位高管都是黨員，當(dāng)黨說‘跳起來’否則‘我們都身陷麻煩’的時候，他們會問‘跳多高？’就是這么簡單�！蓖瑯拥囊�(guī)則可以應(yīng)用于國有企業(yè)。

　　如今，政府處理經(jīng)濟重大變化的能力特別重要，因為中國面臨的許多麻煩其實是由北京一手造成的。由于十分擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟過熱以及不斷高漲的通脹率，國家去年設(shè)法降溫。這意味著引入新的更嚴(yán)厲的勞動法以及其他意在關(guān)閉玩具和服裝等低端生產(chǎn)行業(yè)的措施，如今正是在這些生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域，成千上萬的農(nóng)民工將要失業(yè)。在2008年初的泡沫房市，當(dāng)局向潛在的買家轉(zhuǎn)達：暫緩購買是明智的選擇。那位投行分析家表示，“政府基本上是再說，‘你現(xiàn)在買房就是傻瓜，因為我們準(zhǔn)確確保價格直線下跌�！�如今政府告訴他們，可以買了，而且這是買房的好時機，而且銀行很樂意借貸。人們當(dāng)然會再次開始購買。”換言之，很多問題是因為北京打算重構(gòu)國家經(jīng)濟而故意造成的，北京應(yīng)該可以相對迅速相對容易地扭轉(zhuǎn)很多問題。

　　12月18日將是鄧小平改革中國經(jīng)濟三十周年紀(jì)念日。目前折磨全球的金融和經(jīng)濟危機把全世界帶到無人領(lǐng)地。如果葛藝豪和羅斯曼等人的說法是正確的，那么，在一個沒有什么是固定的世界里，唯一不變的就是中國讓我們再次吃驚的能力。

　　英文原文:

　　Is China Headed for a Hard Landing?

　　The news from China in recent weeks has been dire. Strikes and protests — some of them violent and involving as many as ten thousand people — are reported almost daily. Millions of workers are being thrown out of their jobs, and economic indicators seem to presage more gloom, with electricity production for industry falling 4% in October, the first time it has declined in a decade. Even the country"s seemingly insatiable thirst for oil to fuel its decades" long boom seems to be fading: China"s national oil company said late in November that demand had declined "sharply" in recent months as industrial production slowed and was set to fall further.

　　So is China — the "fragile superpower" as one historian memorably called it — about to experience the one thing its leaders and many analysts and academics outside the country have feared for years: a violent contraction in its economy that some fear could spark widespread social unrest among its billion inhabitants? (See pictures of the global financial crisis.)

　　Some respected voices certainly think so. Nouriel Roubini, a professor at the Stern Business School at New York University, has warned for years of the dangers of a coming financial implosion. "The risk of a hard landing in China is sharply rising," he wrote recently. "A deceleration in the Chinese growth rate to 7% in 2009 — just a notch above a 6% "hard landing" — is highly likely, and an even worse outcome cannot be ruled out at this point." But other analysts, many of whom are China specialists, believe that a range of factors unique to the nation will not only likely preserve it from the worst of the global meltdown but keep its economy chugging along at a respectable 8% GDP growth in 2009.

　　Who"s right? This is after all, not a trivial question. With the U.S., Japan and Europe all heading simultaneously into recession, China stands alone as one of the pillars of the world economy that might at least carry itself through the turmoil, and perhaps even bring along parts of Asia on its coattails.

　　For my money, I"d go with the homegrown economists, who make their calculations taking into account some of China"s peculiarities that aren"t necessarily amenable to accurate quantification. This group is in broad agreement that while things will be pretty ugly over the next several months, the nearly $600 billion fiscal package announced by Beijing in mid-November, along with a host of other measures, will keep the Chinese economy"s head well above water. As Beijing-based economist Arthur Kroeber points out, the same factors that driven China"s extraordinary growth will provide a base of GDP growth that could amount to as much as 6 or 7% a year. "People who don"t follow China on a regular basis can miss some of the underlying drivers," says Kroeber, who runs the consulting firm Dragonomics. First, Kroeber says, there"s a large demographic dividend provided by the fact that the average worker now has roughly half the number of dependents to care for they did in 1976, freeing up much more disposable income. Then you have the boost of adopting new technology more or less for free from overseas companies, a phenomenon development economists cal "technology catch up." And lastly, he says, there"s urbanization.(點擊此處閱讀下一頁)

　　 Some 15 million people are currently moving to Chinese cities every year, giving the economy an enormous boost from the investment in infrastructure like roads, bridges, and hospitals.

　　A recent estimate by Merrill Lynch also expects a 3% point addition to growth next year. In other economies today, that kind of growth would be unachievable. Whatever stimulus package finally gets put in place in the U.S., for example, is unlikely to add even one percentage point fillip to growth. But China, as it has proved repeatedly over recent decades, is different. It remains a unique mixture of raging, visible capitalism resting on a foundation of state-owned enterprises, which, the Merrill report points out, still account for 33% of industrial production and 45% of investment in China"s cities. Beijing also still holds sway over its domestic banking sector, particularly in times of crisis that threaten the Party"s power. "On the outside, China"s banks do look a lot more like normal Western commercial banks," says one investment bank analyst with a decade of experience in China. "But every single senior officer — right down to the manager of the smallest branch in Outer Mongolia — is a Party member. And when the Party says, "Jump," or "We"re all in trouble," they say, "How high?" It"s that simple." The same rule applies to state owned enterprises, which still account for about a third of GDP.

　　The ability of the government to engineer major changes in the economy is particularly important today, considering many of the problems China faces were directly created by Beijing. Deeply concerned about an economy growing at a blistering 11% or more per year and a spiking inflation rate, the state set out to cool things down last year. That meant introducing new, tougher labor laws and other measures designed to shut down lower value-added production of goods like toys and garments, precisely the area where now, months later, hundreds of thousands of migrant workers are losing jobs. In the early 2008 bubbling property market, authorities conveyed to potential house buyers that they would be wise to hold off. "The government basically said, "You"d be a complete idiot to buy an apartment right now because we"re going to make sure that prices drop like a stone,"" says the investment bank analyst. "Now the government is telling them it"s not just okay to buy, it would be a great time to buy and the banks will be happy to lend to you. Of course people will start buying again." In other words, having deliberately caused much of the problem in the first place with an eye to restructuring the country"s economy, Beijing should be able to reverse much of what it put in place relatively quickly and easily. (See pictures of China on the wild side.)

　　This Dec. 18 will mark the thirtieth anniversary of the moment when Deng Xiaoping pushed a Communist Party plenum into adopting the first measures that would launch the country into the most extraordinary burst of economic development the world has ever seen. Outsiders have been predicting that it couldn"t last ever since. The financial and economic crisis currently plaguing the globe has lead the whole world into unchartered territory. If the likes of Kroeber and Rothman are right, the one thing that could remain constant in a world where nothing seems fixed is China"s ability to surprise us once again.

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